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Economists are stunned as another great jobs report shows an incredibly strong economy under President Joe Biden. The February report puts unemployment at 3.6%, a slight tick up from 3.5%, with wages still rising.
“Holy smokes,” exclaimed University of Michigan professor of economics Justin Wolfers, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He says payrolls increased by 311,000, “well above” the consensus of 225,000.
Wolfers also characterized the past three months of jobs growth as “gangbusters” and “smoking hot,” as he continued to criticize those claiming the U.S. is in or approaching a recession: “Extraordinary that this occurred through a period of naysayers screaming ‘recession’!”
He didn’t stop there.
“It still remains stunning to me that we’re experiencing one of the fastest paces of sustained job growth in our history during a period in which doom-and-gloomers and recessionistas dominated our headlines,” Wolfers says.
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One of the more surprising aspects, according to Wolfers, is how jobs growth has consistently beat expectations, now 11 months in a row, “which should basically be impossible.” He puts the probability of that happening at 0.05%, and says “too many have underestimated this economy for too long.”
Jobs growth has now exceeded consensus forecasts 11 months in a row, which should basically be impossible.
Probability = 0.5^11 = an 0.05% chance.
Or these aren’t independent draws, and too many have underestimated this economy for too long. (Not me.)https://t.co/1rezYFKclN
— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) March 10, 2023
“In recent months, average hourly earnings grew faster than consumer prices, meaning real wages are growing,” says Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist and former senior economist on President Barack Obama’s Council of Economic Advisors (CEA).
Political strategist Simon Rosenberg points to the difference between Democratic and Republican presidents.
When Democrats are in power the unemployment rate goes down.
When Republicans are in power it goes up. 4/ pic.twitter.com/P0h3pLPjJr
— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) March 10, 2023
He also points to other measures of a strong economy, noting how the uninsured, poverty, and unemployment rates are doing under President Biden.
Under Biden the US has seen the
– lowest uninsured rate, ever
– lowest poverty rate, ever
– lowest peacetime unemployment rate since WWII 7/ pic.twitter.com/afaM6UgDYW— Simon Rosenberg (@SimonWDC) March 10, 2023
Joey Politano, who writes about monetary policy, labor markets, business, and finance, adds that “the gender employment gap is near an all-time low!”
In fact, American women’s prime-age employment rates are now only 0.1% off all-time highs, and the gender employment gap is near an all-time low! pic.twitter.com/p8iejdgriP
— Joey Politano ???? (@JosephPolitano) March 10, 2023
See the tweets and charts above or at this link.
Image via Shutterstock
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